Research & Humanitarian Simulations
Evidence standard. Simulations are models built on assumptions. Their outputs are hypotheses, not findings. Nothing on this page presents a speculative outcome as established fact.
Purpose
AI-assisted simulations could help compare responses to a crisis — humanitarian intervention, voluntary safe havens, community-led reform, and other nonmilitary alternatives such as mediation, aid corridors, and documentation for lawful institutions — before anyone acts. In line with Principle 8, coercive or military options are treated as last resorts and evaluated against the alternatives, not the reverse.
Method
- State the scenario and the people affected.
- List every input and label it Verified, Contested, or Hypothetical.
- Model several options side by side, including “no extraordinary intervention.”
- Report ranges and uncertainty, never single confident predictions.
- Test against HPP-001 §9 failure modes (mission creep, false accusations, biased evidence, paternalism).
- Have human reviewers, including representatives of affected communities, challenge the results.
Evidence labels
| Label | Meaning |
|---|---|
| Verified | Supported by multiple independent, cited sources |
| Contested | Sources disagree or reliability is uncertain |
| Hypothetical | An assumption made for modelling; not evidence |
| Simulated output | A model result; never treated as fact |
Scenario template
scenario_id: SIM-0000 title: status: draft | under review | archived evidence_status: hypothetical | contested | verified (per input) affected_groups: assumptions: - [label: hypothetical] ... verified_inputs: - [source citation] ... options_compared: - no extraordinary intervention - humanitarian aid / corridors - voluntary safe haven - community-led reform / mediation - other nonmilitary alternative metrics: lives protected, freedoms preserved, reversibility, collateral harm uncertainty: ranges, sensitivity analysis failure_mode_tests: HPP-001 §9 human_review: reviewers, dissent recorded conclusion_type: hypothesis only — not a factual finding
Simulations use hypothetical or public aggregate data only. This project does not collect reports about real individuals or allegations.